Information is being spread online that the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) allegedly predicts an early offensive by the Russian army in the Kharkiv direction. ISW believes that after the capture of the village of Lyptsi, the Russians will pull up their reserves and, with the support of artillery and aviation, will begin a full-fledged assault on Kharkiv.

In fact, this information is not true. This was reported by specialists from the VoxCheck project. On the Institute’s website one can find a summary, the map from which the fake news was published. However, the report does not provide forecasts for the rate of advance of the Russian army. Also, ISW does not believe that the Russians will try to storm Kharkiv.

The summary provides an assessment of the Russian offensive as of May 10, 2024 and an analysis of its goals. However, the Institute does not put forward hypotheses about how quickly the Russian army will advance in the Kharkiv direction.

The Institute’s experts indeed suggest that the Russian army has reserves that it is ready to later bring into battle in this direction. In its first attacks, the Russian Federation used a relatively limited number of personnel and equipment. However, the Institute does not believe that the enemy intends to carry out a large-scale operation to capture or encircle Kharkiv. ISW analysts suggest that the goal of this campaign is to push Ukrainian forces back from the border with the Belgorod region and advance into Kharkiv within range of cannon artillery, that is, closer than 25 km from the city. The institute estimates that it will most likely be difficult for the Russians to capture Kharkiv if the Kremlin makes such a decision. In addition, ISW claims that by their actions the Russians are trying to divert the maximum number of Ukrainian Defense Forces from other sectors of the front to the Kharkiv direction in order to intensify their own efforts in the Donbas: there they are trying to break through to the northwest of Avdiivka and in the direction of Chasiv Yar.

Previously, we refuted information that Russian paratroopers could supposedly land near Kharkiv in the rear of Ukrainian troops.