Russian propaganda conveys to Russians the impression that the Kremlin is moderately optimistic about economic performance as a result of anti-Russian sanctions. Russia accuses the West of “irrationality and illogicality of the sanctions that provoked chaos and destabilization of world economic relations” and insists on their cancellation. Russian Foreign Minister Serhii Lavrov accused the West of failing to fulfill its promise to lift sanctions on the export of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets as part of the “grain agreement” with Ukraine.

As the Center for Countering Disinformation writes, because of the war the Russian economy is heading towards one of the longest recessions in its history. Several scenarios of a long-term depression of the Russian economy are probable. The first option is “inertial”: the bottom will be reached in 2023 by 8.3% below the level of 2021. The second is “stressful”: the maximum drop in GDP in 2024 by 11.9% from the pre-war year. The third is “targeted”: in 2022, a fall of 2.9% and a resumption of economic growth of 16.9% in 2030.