In the second half of October 2025, Russian propaganda may significantly intensify disinformation campaigns aimed at Ukraine and its international partners. This forecast was published by the State Center for Countering Disinformation.

One of the main threats will be an information campaign tentatively titled “Ukraine’s unpreparedness for winter”. Kremlin media, exploiting strikes on energy infrastructure, will try to convince Ukrainians and the international community of the alleged “catastrophic state of the energy system”, “cities freezing”, and the “inability of the authorities to cope with the crisis”. Any local outages or accidents will be presented as “proof of a systemic failure”. The main goal is to undermine trust in the Ukrainian government, demoralize society, and push the West to pressure Kyiv toward a so-called “peace settlement”.

The second major threat will be efforts to discredit the EU’s 20th sanctions package. Propaganda will promote messages about the West’s “exhausted leverage”, showcase the supposed “stability” of Russia’s economy, and highlight an alleged “split” among EU member states. The Kremlin will actively manipulate statistics and economic indicators to argue the supposed “ineffectiveness” of sanctions, while also spreading fakes about “internal opposition” in Europe to restrictive policies.

A separate line of Russian attacks will focus on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Moscow will continue to accuse Ukraine of “provoking a nuclear catastrophe” and portray it as a source of “nuclear terrorism”. There is a high likelihood of fabricated reports about “Ukrainian drone attacks” on Russian nuclear facilities to instill fear in the international community and amplify anti-war sentiment.

In Europe, an intensification of so-called “anti-war” rhetoric is expected. Under the cover of slogans “for peace”, Russian-linked structures will attempt to organize rallies aimed at undermining support for Ukraine. Such events, presented as “public protests against war”, in fact serve Kremlin interests by seeking to weaken internal EU unity.

A campaign to discredit transatlantic defense cooperation is also forecast, particularly in connection with discussions about transferring Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. Propaganda will try to argue that such deliveries “will not change the course of the war”, but instead will “drag NATO into the conflict” and “drain U.S. resources”.

Another likely information attack will be linked to the European Parliament’s decision to allow the interception of Russian aircraft and drones in EU airspace. The Kremlin will spread messages about “escalation of the conflict” and “Europe’s aggressive policy”, attempting to frighten the public and reduce the political will of European countries to support defensive initiatives.