Social networks are spreading data that the Russian ruble has become the second fastest-growing currency among developing countries, and the reason for this strengthening is exports. Mesegee - sanctions are inactive or working in the opposite direction.

Since late March, the ruble has really begun to recover from the collapse caused by the outbreak of war and sanctions, says Yurii Haidai, senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy, in a commentary for the DM. Although now its official exchange rate for world currencies corresponds to the pre-war values, and the rate on the black market is somewhat lower, in the long term artificial holding of the exchange rate will harm the Russian economy, the expert added. "The first reason for the paradoxical persistence of the ruble is the trade balance. 60% of Russia's foreign exchange earnings come from oil and gas exports, which have largely persisted. The EU cannot quickly bring these purchases down to zero, and the decrease in demand from the EU is offset by high prices and attempts to redirect some exports to other countries.

In the first two months of the war, Russia received 62 billion euros in energy exports alone, of which 44 billion came from EU countries. At the same time, against the backdrop of sanctions and declining consumption, imports to Russia collapsed, which means that Russia spends much less currency than before the war. The trade surplus in the first quarter of 2022 was 55 billion euros, twice as much as in the past.

Combined with other steps, such as the obligation for exporters to sell 80% of foreign currency earnings, a sharp increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank of Russia, and a de facto ban on foreign investors exiting assets in Russia, this has created a significant demand for the ruble, leading to its appreciation.

Artificial keeping of the ruble exchange rate on the medium and long term will additionally damage the budget revenues and the economy of Russia, as it was admitted publicly by Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia. But until the Western countries introduce a full-fledged oil embargo, one should not expect a significant depreciation of the ruble," explained Yurii Haidai.