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Tactics and tools How Russian propaganda uses the “vague assumption” tactic

Using the vague assumption tactic, propagandists present the messages they want to the audience in the format of multiple guesses or hints. This is done to inspire more credibility, because the message itself may sound unconvincing. When people hear repeated fuzzy assumptions or hints, they themselves come up with the “truth” that propagandists need.

An example of the use of this tactic is the propaganda messages that appeared after Russian missiles hit Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil region on May 13, 2023. Pro-Russian anonymous telegram channels provided the messages they needed precisely in the format of vague assumptions of varying degrees. The least clear of them were the following: “The consequences of the strike at the ammunition warehouse in Khmelnytskyi. Most of the object was destroyed by the explosion and secondary detonations. There is no information about what was in the warehouses, as well as a photo of the work of the State Emergency Service” and “Here is such a memo that appeared in public places in cities in the Khmelnytskyi region. The Ministry of Health of Ukraine reminds of the need to follow  radiation safety rules. However, at the official level, so far no one has explained anything: what actually exploded in warehouses in the Ternopil region”. Such reports, combined with clearer ones about the uranium cores of shells for British Challenger 2 tanks, were intended to create panic and a sense of a radiation threat among Ukrainians, as well as to show the alleged aggressiveness and desire to escalate the war on the part of the Western allies.

Another example of the use of allusions in propaganda is a report by another pro-Russian anonymous telegram channel, which criticizes the statement of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Ihor Klymenko about the fact that men who illegally left Ukraine will be punished: “A Ukrainian who is abroad is outraged that people's deputies are preparing to adopt a bill on criminal liability for men who have gone abroad. I wonder if such a law is passed, what will the sons of Danilov and Stefanchuk do? And the sons of other bureaucrats and businessmen. Will they be given a disability? Or something else?”. Here propagandists make an indirect allusion to the fact that the sons of the highest officials of Ukraine Oleksii Danilov and Ruslan Stefanchuk are allegedly illegally abroad, with the aim of discrediting the authorities as a whole and accusing them of double standards.

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